Systematic study of policy experiences can increase public support for new policies

How do you encourage a skeptical public to support a new policy? New research by Georgia State University economist Stefano Carattini and his co-authors suggests that experience with a policy can lead people to change their beliefs about the policy and increase public support for it.

While researchers often examine how policies work, they generally neglect to examine how voters learn about how policies work. Documenting how opposition to necessary policies may dissipate (or increase) with a person’s experience is key to tackling the most important issues of this century. Their findings were recently published in the journal Science.

“Many sound policies considered to be socially desirable have not been widely accepted,” Carattini said. “In fact, they’re often opposed. However, if there was a body of knowledge showing that opposition dissipates when voters experience a new policy, then policymakers may be more inclined to test policies otherwise considered unpopular.”

Examples of policies that have become more popular over time include congestion charges, pricing garbage by the bag and expanded health insurance coverage. And on Nov. 5, voters in Washington turned down Initiative 2117, a proposal to repeal its carbon pricing policy, which voters have experienced since 2023 when it was introduced by the state legislature. Nearly 62% of voters voted against the repeal. Before then, in 2016 and 2018, voters in Washington State had rejected two carbon tax proposals, at 59.3% and 56.6%, respectively.

In the article, Carattini and his colleagues Robert Dur (Erasmus University Rotterdam) and John List (University of Chicago) suggest that systematically combining policy evaluation with the causal analysis of public support would allow scholars to create a body of knowledge on the conditions under which policies become more (or less) popular after implementation. This could lead policymakers to better understand what drives change in beliefs and public support and to potentially be less reticent in implementing new policies.

“Policymakers care about both a policy’s effects and a voter’s process of learning about the policy,” he said. “Researchers should prioritize collecting evidence not only on how policies work, but also on how they can be maintained and scaled up, which naturally includes questions of political buy-in. Evidence showing a policy is becoming popular could prevent its repeal while encouraging other policymakers to follow suit. If public support decreases after implementation, that would also be important to know.”

Carattini and his colleagues suggest research funders encourage the combination of policy evaluation with public support. They also suggest how policymakers could facilitate this research.

“It is in the policymaker’s interest, when testing new policy, to collaborate with researchers and make data available to facilitate policy evaluation, to help voters understand how the policy is working,” Carattini said.