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New tool to help decision makers navigate possible futures of the Colorado River

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New tool to help decision makers navigate possible futures of the Colorado River


New tool to help decision makers navigate possible futures of the Colorado River
Water flowing on the Colorado River near Moab, Utah. Credit: United States Geological Survey

The Colorado River is a vital source of water in the Western United States, providing drinking water for homes and irrigation for farms in seven states, but the basin is under increasing pressure from climate change and drought. A new computational tool developed by a research team, led by Penn State scientists, may help the region adapt to a complex and uncertain future.

Their tool, the Framework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC), can help decision-makers explore many plausible futures and identify consequential scenario storylines—or descriptions of what critical futures might look like—to help planners better address the uncertainties and impacts presented by climate change. They reported their findings Sept. 19 in the journal Earth’s Future.

“One of the ways states like Colorado are preparing for the future is by making plans for how things might evolve based on the available science and inputs from various stakeholders,” said Antonia Hadjimichael, assistant professor in the Department of Geosciences at Penn State and lead author of the study. “This scenario planning process recognizes that planning for the future comes with many uncertainties about climate and water needs. So, planners have to consider different possibilities, such as a high-warming or a low-warming scenario.”

Hadjimichael said that both the scientific community and decision makers around the world often turn to scenarios to describe what conditions may look like in the future, but this approach may regard only a few possibilities and discount other alternatives.

These scenario planning approaches often feature a relatively small number of scenarios—for example what drought conditions might look like under different levels of warming—and may fail to capture the complexity of all the factors involved.

Alternatively, scientists use a technique called exploratory modeling, where models simulate thousands to millions of possible futures to discover which are consequential. But this approach is often not practical for use by decision makers, the scientists said.

“We wanted to provide something in the middle,” Hadjimichael said. “We wanted to create something that bridges the two—that considers the complexities but also boils it down to something that’s a little more actionable and a little less daunting.”

Their tool, FRNSIC, uses exploratory modeling first to investigate a large number of hypothesized plausible future conditions. It then uses that data to classify and identify relevant and locally meaningful storylines, the scientists said.

“Our approach essentially explores plausible future impacts and then says, ‘for this stakeholder, this is the storyline that would matter the most—and then for this other stakeholder, there is a different storyline they should be worried about,” Hadjimichael said. “It’s adding a little bit more pluralism and a little bit more nuance into how planning scenarios are established.”

In the Colorado River basin, decision makers face a complex set of factors, including how to supply enough water for growing populations and farmers while ensuring their state is not using more than their allowed share of the river’s flow, Hadjimichael said.

“The problem is there is not a single criterion that captures everybody and what they care about,” she said. “Maybe you have a very large farm, and maybe I have a very small farm. And maybe we grow different things. It’s hard to use a single factor to find out scenarios that would make us all happy, or make us all unhappy.”

The storylines produced by FRNSIC can be used in future work in the Colorado River basin—for example, how drought events are impacted when populations adapt and make changes.

“This allows policymakers to explore different states the world and helps review how different interventions might affect the basin under each storyline,” Hadjimichael said. “These drought scenarios can be used to illuminate potential consequences, and therefore be used in negotiations or when asking stakeholders for their input.”

Also contributing were Patrick Reed, professor at Cornell University; Julianne Quinn, assistant professor at the University of Virginia; and Chris Vernon, geospatial scientist, and Travis Thurber, software engineer, at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

More information:
Antonia Hadjimichael et al, Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change, Earth’s Future (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004252

Citation:
New tool to help decision makers navigate possible futures of the Colorado River (2024, September 21)
retrieved 21 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-tool-decision-makers-futures-colorado.html

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Google begins its defense in antitrust case alleging monopoly over advertising technology

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Google begins its defense in antitrust case alleging monopoly over advertising technology


Google
Credit: PhotoMIX Company from Pexels

Google opened its defense against allegations that it holds an illegal monopoly on online advertising technology Friday with witness testimony saying the industry is vastly more complex and competitive than portrayed by the federal government.

“The industry has been exceptionally fluid over the last 18 years,” said Scott Sheffer, a vice president for global partnerships at Google, the company’s first witness at its antitrust trial in federal court in Alexandria.

The Justice Department and a coalition of states contend that Google built and maintained an illegal monopoly over the technology that facilitates the buying and selling of online ads seen by consumers.

Google counters that the government’s case improperly focuses on a narrow type of online ads—essentially the rectangular ones that appear on the top and on the right-hand side of a webpage. In its opening statement, Google’s lawyers said the Supreme Court has warned judges against taking action when dealing with rapidly emerging technology like what Sheffer described because of the risk of error or unintended consequences.

Google says defining the market so narrowly ignores the competition it faces from social media companies, Amazon, streaming TV providers and others who offer advertisers the means to reach online consumers.

Justice Department lawyers called witnesses to testify for two weeks before resting their case Friday afternoon, detailing the ways that automated ad exchanges conduct auctions in a matter of milliseconds to determine which ads are placed in front of which consumers and how much they cost.

The department contends the auctions are finessed in subtle ways that benefit Google to the exclusion of would-be competitors and in ways that prevent publishers from making as much money as they otherwise could for selling their ad space.

It also says that Google’s technology, when used on all facets of an ad transaction, allows Google to keep 36 cents on the dollar of any particular ad purchase, billions of which occur every single day.

Executives at media companies like Gannett, which publishes U.S. Today, and News Corp., which owns the Wall Streel Journal and Fox News, have said that Google dominates the landscape with technology used by publishers to sell ad space as well as by advertisers looking to buy it. The products are tied together so publishers have to use Google’s technology if they want easy access to its large cache of advertisers.

The government said in its complaint filed last year that at a minimum Google should be forced to sell off the portion of its business that caters to publishers, to break up its dominance.

In his testimony Friday, Sheffer explained how Google’s tools have evolved over the years and how it vetted publishers and advertisers to guard against issues like malware and fraud.

The trial began Sept. 9, just a month after a judge in the District of Columbia declared Google’s core business, its ubiquitous search engine, an illegal monopoly. That trial is still ongoing to determine what remedies, if any, the judge may impose.

The ad technology at question in the Virginia case does not generate the same kind of revenue for Google as its search engine does, but is still believed to bring in tens of billions of dollars annually.

Overseas, regulators have also accused Google of anticompetitive conduct. But the company won a victory this week when a an EU court overturned a 1.49 billion euro ($1.66 billion) antitrust fine imposed five years ago that targeted a different segment of the company’s online advertising business.

© 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Citation:
Google begins its defense in antitrust case alleging monopoly over advertising technology (2024, September 21)
retrieved 21 September 2024
from https://techxplore.com/news/2024-09-google-defense-antitrust-case-alleging.html

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Demand-side actions could help construction sector deliver on net-zero targets

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Demand-side actions could help construction sector deliver on net-zero targets


construction
Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

Using state-of-the-art energy efficiency technologies to renovate existing properties and construct new ones could enable Europe’s construction sector to almost eliminate its carbon emissions by 2060, a new study suggests.

Published in the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, the research is the first to fully assess the potential for energy demand reduction across the construction sectors of the United Kingdom and all European Union member states.

It highlights that 75% of Europe’s building stock is currently classed as energy inefficient, with total floor space also projected to increase by more than 20% over the next three decades.

In spite of this, employing a combination of technologies including solar energy and heat pumps within both residential and non-residential properties could reduce the total energy used to heat and cool buildings by up to 97%.

With growing concerns over energy security, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events, the researchers say that harnessing such technologies could significantly reduce energy costs as well as enhancing people’s health and quality of life.

More broadly, they say, transitioning towards a net-zero building sector offers substantial potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change and play a pivotal role in meeting the targets set out in the Paris Agreement and other global climate goals.

The study’s lead author is Dr. Souran Chatterjee, Lecturer in Energy Transitions at the University of Plymouth, who said, “The building sector can play a pivotal role in mitigating the impacts of climate change. Our study unequivocally highlights the potential for reducing building energy demand, and the crucial role it can play in achieving climate neutrality targets right across the UK and Europe.

“Many of these demand-side actions in the building sector would also enhance well-being, having a positive impact on people’s health and productivity, and creating more jobs. It is important to understand that the more we delay, the more energy we will need to power our homes and workplaces over a longer period of time and that will hinder our ability to achieve climate targets.”

In addition to the University of Plymouth, the study also involved researchers at the Central European University, University of Szeged, and the Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research.

They used a mathematical model called the High-Efficiency Building (HEB) energy model to calculate the energy demand reduction potential—and the net-zero feasibility of the building sector—for the UK and each of the European Union Member States.

Among the calculations were that the energy required for cooling residential buildings across Europe could be reduced by up to 86% by 2050, while for non-residential properties the figure could be around 76%, if the sector aimed for its most ambitious net-zero targets.

This could be particularly beneficial in countries such as Italy, France, Greece and Spain where there is greater reliance on air conditioning as part of building projects.

For heating, aiming for the most ambitious targets could lead to a reduction in energy demand of more than 80% by 2050, and for hot water the energy demand could be reduced by around 50%.

Increasing the numbers of heat pumps and other on-site energy production within future residential developments could increase the demand savings for both heating and hot water to around 90%.

The study also showed that if comprehensive renovations and efficient constructions are not implemented, the total thermal energy demand of the building sector could increase by up to 7% by 2060.

More information:
Navigating the Transition: Modelling the Path for Net-zero European Building Sector, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.114827

Citation:
Demand-side actions could help construction sector deliver on net-zero targets (2024, September 20)
retrieved 20 September 2024
from https://techxplore.com/news/2024-09-demand-side-actions-sector-net.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Small ‘no-take zone’ can help protect critically endangered hammerhead shark in Columbia

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Small ‘no-take zone’ can help protect critically endangered hammerhead shark in Columbia


Small 'no-take zone' can help protect critically endangered hammerhead shark
Study area in Uramba Bahía Málaga National Natural Park (shaded area), Colombia and its location on the Colombian Pacific Coast. Credit: Florida International University

Researchers are advocating for a “no-take zone” off the coast of Colombia after one of the world’s smallest and most threatened hammerhead species was found to do very little traveling outside of a Marine Protected Area in the region.

A team of researchers including FIU shark biologists Diego Cardeñosa and Yannis Papastamatiou, tracked the movements of scalloped bonnetheads inside a marine protected area (MPA) along the Colombian Pacific Coast, where this species still occurs in high numbers. Using acoustic telemetry, a technique that tracks underwater movements through sound signals, they determined the sharks spent a significant portion of their monitoring period within the study area.

The research is published in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series.

“Using telemetry, we show these little sharks are very residential to small areas,” Papastamatiou said. “This is bad news if overfishing occurs but good news for designing well placed, and enforced, protected areas.”

Research typically focuses on the large, iconic hammerheads, but very little research exists on the scalloped bonnethead—the smallest of the nine recognized hammerhead species—which is classified as critically endangered by the IUCN Red List. This new study provides the first insights into the movement behavior of the scalloped bonnethead with important implications for its protection and management.

“This study is the first of its kind for this species, the most threatened hammerhead shark in the world endemic to the eastern pacific,” said Cardeñosa, corresponding author in the study. “The results show us that localized conservation efforts with local fishing communities is the most effective strategy to protect this species.”

The Colombian Pacific coast is heavily fished by small-scale fisheries. About 7% of the coast is protected, with only three national parks in the region. The study was carried out in the Uramba Bahía Málaga National Natural Park, an area encompassing 181 square miles.

Established in 2010, it is a biodiversity hotspot featuring the highest above-ground mangrove forest biomass of any region outside the Coral Triangle—a vital marine region spanning six countries.

For this study, the researchers looked at the sharks’ movement patterns to assess how long they stay in the area, the influence of tides and time of day on their movements, and the degree of protection a no-take zone could provide in this location.

According to the acoustic data, their movements were limited to just 0.54 square miles within the park. Data also showed the scalloped bonnetheads spent less time in the area at high tide and at night, suggesting more movement and more activity at those times.

According to the study, this combination of small space use and high residency makes the scalloped bonnethead especially vulnerable, but it also makes a strong case for creating an MPA surrounding that core area. Establishing a small no-take zone within the National Park’s MPA—less than 2 miles along the coastline and extending about 1.25 miles offshore—would cover a significant part of the area used by this small coastal shark and could have great benefits for conservation.

The findings have been shared with the local communities and, in a joint effort, the goal is to establish a no-take zone that prohibits the capture or removal of the sharks. The no-take zone would also safeguard the needs of the community and would be under the management of local stakeholders. The researchers note that shark movement data should be incorporated with the interests of all local stakeholders for an optimal MPA to be effective.

The study was a collaboration between the FIU Global Forensic and Justice Center, the Guy Harvey Research Institute and the Save our Seas Foundation Shark Research Center at Nova Southeastern University and the Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del Pacífico in Colombia.

More information:
MA Herrera et al, High residency of a Critically Endangered hammerhead shark to a small area: implications for marine protected area management and design, Marine Ecology Progress Series (2024). DOI: 10.3354/meps14658

Citation:
Small ‘no-take zone’ can help protect critically endangered hammerhead shark in Columbia (2024, September 20)
retrieved 20 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-small-zone-critically-endangered-hammerhead.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Study reveals large ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation

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Study reveals large ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation


Study reveals large ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation
Melting ice in the Southern Ocean. Credit: Jiuxin Shi

As one of the largest heat reservoirs in the climate system, the global ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess energy from ongoing anthropogenic warming. In the last century, the greatest warming in the ocean has occurred in the upper 500 m, with relatively weak warming in the deep ocean, corresponding to a small ocean heat storage efficiency of ~0.1.

Paleoceanographic observations, however, suggest that on long time scales, the deep ocean warming can be comparable to or larger than surface ocean warming, with ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation about ten times of its modern value. This raises the following question: Which mechanisms are responsible for ocean heat uptake/storage, and how great can their efficiency be?

Recently published in Science Advances, a joint study by an international team of scientists from China and the U.S. has shed light on this issue. By combining state-of-the-art deglacial simulations and proxy-based reconstructions, they resolved the three-dimensional deglacial ocean temperature change and found that the deglacial ocean heat storage efficiency is substantially enhanced to ≥1 by strong warming in intermediate-depth waters in response to deglacial forcing.

“Our simulations and proxy reconstructions demonstrate that the three-dimensional ocean warming during the last deglaciation was strongly nonuniform, with the strongest warming occurring at intermediate depths, in striking contrast to contemporary observations,” said Dr. Chenyu Zhu from the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the study’s co-first author.

Utilizing sensitivity experiments, the study revealed that the large warming of intermediate waters can be related to surface warming at mid-to-subpolar latitudes through ventilation in response to greenhouse gases and ice sheet forcing, and substantially enhanced by oceanic circulation change associated with meltwater forcing.

“The unique ocean warming structure facilitates a large ocean heat storage efficiency. In particular, this resolves the paradox suggested by the conventional view that warming occurred at sites of deep-water formation that remained covered by sea ice,” said Prof. Zhengyu Liu of The Ohio State University, one of the corresponding authors of the study.

“These results have valuable implications. For example, if strong surface warming and strong ventilation are collocated like in our simulations, then the ocean will absorb more heat from the atmosphere, potentially slowing the rate of atmospheric warming,” said Prof. Peter U. Clark of Oregon State University, another corresponding author of the study .

The study underscores the important role of surface warming patterns and oceanic circulation change in long-term ocean heat storage change, and suggests that “the ocean can serve as a far greater reservoir of energy in the climate system than implied by contemporary observations.”

More information:
Chenyu Zhu et al, Enhanced ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adp5156. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adp5156

Citation:
Study reveals large ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation (2024, September 20)
retrieved 20 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-reveals-large-ocean-storage-efficiency.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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