In a new article, a coalition of conservationists and researchers have shown how we can protect Earth’s remaining biodiversity by conserving just a tiny percentage of the planet’s surface. This affordable, achievable plan would make it possible for us to preserve the most threatened species from extinction, safeguarding Earth’s wildlife for the future.

“Most species on Earth are rare, meaning that species either have very narrow ranges or they occur at very low densities or both,” said Dr. Eric Dinerstein of the NGO Resolve, lead author of the article in Frontiers in Science. “And rarity is very concentrated. In our study, zooming in on this rarity, we found that we need only about 1.2% of the Earth’s surface to head off the sixth great extinction of life on Earth.”

Prioritizing the planet

To meet ambitious conservation goals, an additional 1.2 million square kilometers of land were protected between 2018 and 2023. But do these new conservation areas effectively protect critical biodiversity? Dinerstein and his colleagues estimated that the 2018-2023 expansion only covered 0.11 million square kilometers with range-limited and threatened species. Planning protected areas is crucial, ensuring that we target our efforts and resources as effectively as possible.

The scientists started by mapping the entire world, using six layers of global biodiversity data. By combining these layers of data with maps of existing protected areas and a fractional land cover analysis, using satellite images to identify the remaining habitat available to rare and threatened species, the scientists were able to identify the most critical, currently unprotected areas of biodiversity. They called these Conservation Imperatives: a global blueprint to help countries and regions plan conservation at a more local level.

These 16,825 sites, covering approximately 164 Mha, could prevent all predicted extinctions if they were adequately protected. Just protecting the sites found in the tropics could stave off most predicted extinctions. Additionally, 38% of Conservation Imperatives are very close to already-protected areas, which could make it easier to absorb them into protected areas or to find other ways of conserving them.

“These sites are home to over 4,700 threatened species in some of the world’s most biodiverse yet threatened ecosystems,” said Andy Lee of Resolve, a co-author. “These include not only mammals and birds that rely on large intact habitats, like the tamaraw in the Philippines and the Celebes crested macaque in Sulawesi, Indonesia, but also range-restricted amphibians and rare plant species.”

The cost of conservation

To calculate the price of this protection, the scientists modeled a cost estimate using data from hundreds of land protection projects over 14 years, and accounting for the type and amount of land acquired as well as country-specific economic factors. These numbers are approximate because a variety of land purchase or long-term lease options, each with different costs, might work well for protecting Conservation Imperatives. Stakeholders worldwide, including indigenous peoples, communities with jurisdiction over Conservation Imperative sites, and other members of civil society, will need to decide which options work best for them.

“Our analysis estimated that protecting the Conservation Imperatives in the tropics would cost approximately $34 billion per year over the next five years,” said Lee. “This represents less than 0.2% of the United States’ GDP, less than 9% of the annual subsidies benefiting the global fossil fuel industry, and a fraction of the revenue generated from the mining and agroforestry industries each year.”

Preserving wildlife is also key to halting and reversing the climate crisis. Preserving biodiversity means protecting the Earth’s forest cover, which acts as a carbon sink: by conserving carbon-rich, wildlife-rich forested regions, we protect both threatened species and humans. While securing Conservation Imperatives is only part of the work—for example, just purchasing land won’t prevent poaching—it’s the first critical step we need to take.

“What will we bequeath to future generations? A healthy, vibrant Earth is critical for us to pass on,” said Dinerstein. “So we’ve got to get going. We’ve got to head off the extinction crisis. Conservation Imperatives drive us to do that.”

Meet CARMEN, short for Cognitively Assistive Robot for Motivation and Neurorehabilitation—a small, tabletop robot designed to help people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) learn skills to improve memory, attention, and executive functioning at home.

Unlike other robots in this space, CARMEN was developed by the research team at the University of California San Diego in collaboration with clinicians, people with MCI, and their care partners. To the best of the researchers’ knowledge, CARMEN is also the only robot that teaches compensatory cognitive strategies to help improve memory and executive function.

“We wanted to make sure we were providing meaningful and practical inventions,” said Laurel Riek, a professor of computer science and emergency medicine at UC San Diego and the work’s senior author.

MCI is an in-between stage between typical aging and dementia. It affects various areas of cognitive functioning, including memory, attention, and executive functioning. About 20% of individuals over 65 have the condition, with up to 15% transitioning to dementia each year. Existing pharmacological treatments have not been able to slow or prevent this evolution, but behavioral treatments can help.

Researchers programmed CARMEN to deliver a series of simple cognitive training exercises. For example, the robot can teach participants to create routine places to leave important objects, such as keys; or learn note taking strategies to remember important things. CARMEN does this through interactive games and activities.

The research team designed CARMEN with a clear set of criteria in mind. It is important that people can use the robot independently, without clinician or researcher supervision. For this reason, CARMEN had to be plug and play, without many moving parts that require maintenance. The robot also has to be able to function with limited access to the internet, as many people do not have access to reliable connectivity.

CARMEN needs to be able to function over a long period of time. The robot also has to be able to communicate clearly with users; express compassion and empathy for a person’s situation; and provide breaks after challenging tasks to help sustain engagement.

Researchers deployed CARMEN for a week in the homes of several people with MCI, who then engaged in multiple tasks with the robot, such as identifying routine places to leave household items so they don’t get lost, and placing tasks on a calendar so they won’t be forgotten.

Researchers also deployed the robot in the homes of several clinicians with experience working with people with MCI. Both groups of participants completed questionnaires and interviews before and after the week-long deployments.

After the week with CARMEN, participants with MCI reported trying strategies and behaviors that they previously had written off as impossible. All participants reported that using the robot was easy. Two out of the three participants found the activities easy to understand, but one of the users struggled. All said they wanted more interaction with the robot.

“We found that CARMEN gave participants confidence to use cognitive strategies in their everyday life, and participants saw opportunities for CARMEN to exhibit greater levels of autonomy or be used for other applications,” the researchers write.

The research team presented their findings at the ACM/IEEE Human Robot Interaction (HRI) conference in March 2024, where they received a best paper award nomination.

Next steps include deploying the robot in a larger number of homes.

Researchers also plan to give CARMEN the ability to have conversations with users, with an emphasis on preserving privacy when these conversations happen. This is both an accessibility issue (as some users might not have the fine motor skills necessary to interact with CARMEN’s touch screen), as well as because most people expect to be able to have conversations with systems in their homes.

At the same time, researchers want to limit how much information CARMEN can give users. “We want to be mindful that the user still needs to do the bulk of the work, so the robot can only assist and not give too many hints,” Riek said.

Researchers are also exploring how CARMEN could assist users with other conditions, such as ADHD.

The UC San Diego team built CARMEN based on the FLEXI robot from the University of Washington. But they made substantial changes to its hardware, and wrote all its software from scratch. Researchers used ROS for the robot’s operating system.

Many elements of the project are available at GitHub.