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Climate change will lead to wetter US winters, modeling study finds

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Climate change will lead to wetter US winters, modeling study finds


Climate change will lead to wetter US winters, modeling study finds
Projected area-weighted subregional changes in seasonal precipitation (2070–2099 relative to 1985–2014). Credit: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00761-8

Most Americans can expect wetter winters in the future due to global warming, according to a new study led by a University of Illinois Chicago scientist.

Using climate models to investigate how winter precipitation in the United States will change by the end of the 21st century, a team led by Akintomide Akinsanola found overall winter precipitation and extreme weather events will increase across most of the country.

The study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science also reported an increased frequency in “very wet” winters—those which would rank in the top 5% of U.S. historical total winter precipitation. By the end of the 21st century, these previously rare winters would happen as often as once every four years in some parts of the country.

Combined with a shift from snow to rain in many parts of the country, the changes will have dramatic implications for agriculture, water resources, flooding and other climate-sensitive areas, said Akinsanola, assistant professor of Earth and environmental sciences at UIC.

“We found that, unlike summer and other seasons where projected changes in precipitation is highly uncertain, there will be a robust future intensification of winter precipitation,” Akinsanola said. “It will accelerate well past what we have seen in historic data.”

The team used 19 Earth system models in their study and carried out their analysis over the seven U.S. subregions defined in the National Climate Assessment Report. The study compared projected precipitation at the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) to the present period (1985-2014).

Across the entire United States, they showed an increase in mean winter precipitation of about 2%–5% per degree of warming by the end of the 21st century. In terms of absolute change, the Northwest and Northeast U.S. saw the largest increases. Six of the seven regions will also experience more frequent very wet winters, with the sharpest increases seen in the Northeast and Midwest.

The southern Great Plains—states along the southern border such as Texas and Oklahoma—was the only region where projected changes were very small and highly uncertain. In this region, more frequent extreme dry events will offset or outweigh the increasing extreme wet events, Akinsanola said.

The findings highlight that changes in winter precipitation will have a significant impact nationwide and, in some regions, more impact than expected changes in spring and summer precipitation.

The mix of precipitation also will likely change in many areas. Previous studies have projected that as temperatures rise, more precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in lower snow depth. This reduced snowpack plus higher rain will stress existing systems.

“There will be a need for updating or upgrading infrastructure, because we’re not just talking about the mean precipitation, we’re also talking about an increase in extreme events,” Akinsanola said. “Drainage systems and buildings will have to be improved to cope with potential floods and storm damage.”

In current and future work, Akinsanola will use higher-resolution models to predict changes in precipitation, heat waves, compound dry and hot extremes and other extreme events on a more local level. He conducts some of his research in association with the Environmental Science Division at Argonne National Laboratory, where he holds a joint appointment.

More information:
Akintomide A. Akinsanola et al, Robust future intensification of winter precipitation over the United States, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00761-8

Citation:
Climate change will lead to wetter US winters, modeling study finds (2024, September 26)
retrieved 26 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-climate-wetter-winters.html

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Parents will have to set aside some earnings for child influencers under new California laws

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Parents will have to set aside some earnings for child influencers under new California laws


child influencers
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Parents in California who profit from social media posts featuring their children will be required to set aside some earnings for their minor influencers under a pair of measures signed Thursday by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

California led the nation nearly 80 years ago in setting ground rules to protect child performers from financial abuse, but those regulations needed updating, Newsom said. The existing law covers children working in movies and TV but doesn’t extend to minors making their names on platforms such as TikTok and Instagram.

Family-style vlogs, where influencers share details of their daily lives with countless strangers on the internet, have become a popular and lucrative way to earn money for many.

Besides coordinated dances and funny toddler comments, family vlogs nowadays may share intimate details of their children’s lives — grades, potty training, illnesses, misbehaviors, first periods — for strangers to view. Brand deals featuring the internet’s darlings can reap tens of thousands of dollars per video, but there have been minimal regulations for the “sharenthood” industry, which experts say can cause serious harm to children.

“A lot has changed since Hollywood’s early days, but here in California, our laser focus on protecting kids from exploitation remains the same,” he said in a statement. “In old Hollywood, child actors were exploited. In 2024, it’s now child influencers. Today, that modern exploitation ends through two new laws to protect young influencers on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, and other social media platforms.”

The California laws protecting child social media influencers follow the first-in-the-nation legislation in Illinois that took effect this July. The California measures apply to all children under 18, while the Illinois law covers those under 16.

The California measures, which received overwhelming bipartisan support, require parents and guardians who monetize their children’s online presence to establish a trust for the starlets. Parents will have to keep records of how many minutes the children appear in their online content and how much money they earn from those posts, among other things.

The laws entitle child influencers to a percentage of earnings based on how often they appear on video blogs or online content that generates at least 10 cents per view. The children could sue their parents for failing to do so.

Children employed as content creators on platforms such as YouTube will also have at least 15% of their earnings deposited in a trust for when they turn 18. An existing state law has provided such protection to child actors since 1939 after a silent film-era child actor Jackie Coogan sued his parents for squandering his earnings.

The new laws will take effect next year.

The laws have the support from The Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, or, SAG-AFTRA, and singer Demi Lovato, a former child star who has spoken publicly about child performers abuse.

“In order to build a better future for the next generation of child stars, we need to put protections in place for minors working in the digital space,” Lovato said in a statement. “I’m grateful to Governor Newsom for taking action with this update to the Coogan Law that will ensure children featured on social media are granted agency when they come of age and are properly compensated for the use of their name and likeness.”

The new laws protecting child influencers are part of ongoing efforts by Newsom to address the mental health impacts of social media on children. Newsom earlier this month also signed a bill to curb student phone access at schools and ban social media platforms from knowingly providing addictive feeds to children without parental consent.

© 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Citation:
Parents will have to set aside some earnings for child influencers under new California laws (2024, September 26)
retrieved 26 September 2024
from https://techxplore.com/news/2024-09-parents-child-california-laws.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Presence of bacteria in soil makes flowers more attractive to pollinators, study shows

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Presence of bacteria in soil makes flowers more attractive to pollinators, study shows


Presence of bacteria in soil makes flowers more attractive to pollinators, study shows
Female bumblebees visiting flowers of Chamaecrista latistipula in the wild. The insect makes internal parts of the flower vibrate in order to extract protein-rich pollen grains, which it carries away to feed to the colony’s larvae. Credit: Anselmo Nogueira

Bacteria that live in soil and help roots fix nitrogen can boost certain plants’ capacity to reproduce, according to an article published in the American Journal of Botany describing a study of this mechanism in Chamaecrista latistipula, a legume belonging to the Fabaceae family, which includes beans and peas.

Bacteria in the soil enhance the attractiveness of the plant’s flowers to pollinators via a type of relationship known as mutualism that is widespread in plants and animals. Microorganisms such as bacteria or fungi contribute to and benefit from mutualistic relationships with plants, whereby both sides obtain more nutrients or reproduce more vigorously, for example.

In the case of C. latistipula, a shrub with a native range spanning Bolivia, Brazil and northeast Argentina, the soil it inhabits tends to be nutrient-poor, and it depends on a specific type of pollinator to reproduce.

“Its mutualistic relationship with nitrogen-fixing bacteria increases the supply of the nutrient to its roots in exchange for the sugar on which they feed,” said Anselmo Nogueira, a professor at the Federal University of the ABC’s Center for Natural and Human Sciences (CCNH-UFABC) in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo state, Brazil.

“The plant also has a mutualistic relationship with a specific type of pollinator. The pollen stored in its flowers’ anthers is only released when they are made to vibrate, mainly by being shaken by females of some species of bumblebee in the genus Bombus.”

A greenhouse experiment conducted at the Plant-Animal Interaction Laboratory, which Nogueira heads, showed that these bacteria play a significant role in making flowers attractive to bumblebees, especially for plants growing in nutrient-poor soil.

“We also observed a drastic effect that we hadn’t expected. Because the association with bacteria is very costly for the plant, we assumed that in nitrogen-rich soil the plants would simply take nitrogen directly from the soil, but in our experiments nutrient-rich soil didn’t produce healthy plants with attractive flowers,” said Caroline Souza, first author of the article.

The experiment was part of the project “Synergistic effect of multiple mutualists on plants: how bacteria, ants and bees contribute to the evolution of a hyper-diverse lineage of legumes”, which is coordinated by Nogueira.

Bacteria, plant and insect

In the experiment, the researchers monitored the growth of 60 C. latistipula plants from seed germination for 16 months. Half were grown in soil made up mostly of sand (90%) with a thin layer of organic topsoil (10%) and a low concentration of nutrients, especially nitrogen. The other half were grown in soil rich in organic matter and supplemented with potassium nitrate, which releases nitrogen into the soil. Soil acidity was monitored for six months in both cases to ensure that pH was neutral and did not influence root-bacteria interaction.

Before the seeds were sown, they were sterilized with alcohol, sodium hypochlorite and hydrogen peroxide to eliminate bacteria that could influence the results, and were then rinsed in distilled water. The soil was sterilized at a high temperature in an autoclave to eliminate microorganisms.

The two soil types were then submitted to different treatments. A solution containing rhizobia (bacteria that fix nitrogen in plant roots) was added to half the pots with nitrogen-poor sandy soil and half of those with nitrogen-rich organic matter. The rest had no bacteria. The rhizobia used in the experiment were isolated directly from root nodules found on C. latistipula in the wild.

In the nitrogen-poor sandy soil without added bacteria, the plants grew very little and had persistently yellowish leaves owing to lack of nitrogen. The plants grown in nitrogen-poor sandy soil with added rhizobia developed satisfactorily.

“In the nitrogen-poor sandy soil with nitrogen-fixing bacteria, the plants were almost twice as tall and three times larger than those grown in nitrogen-rich soil with organic matter and rhizobia. On the other hand, the plants grown without rhizobia in both sandy soil and soil rich in organic matter were shorter and smaller than those grown with rhizobia,” Nogueira said.

The researchers analyzed the flowers using a surface spectrophotometer, which measures how light is reflected. “Based on flower reflectance measured in this manner, we tested for alterations in the color contrasts perceptible to bumblebees in the different soils with and without bacteria,” Souza said.

Significant differences were detected only in the plants grown in nitrogen-poor sandy soil with rhizobia: their anthers displayed a pattern considered particularly attractive to bumblebees, which perceive the color spectrum differently from humans.

“The anthers contain the pollen and can be accessed only by insects capable of making them vibrate, which can’t be done by exotic species such as the European honeybee Apis mellifera, for example,” Souza explained.

Pollen is an essential source of protein for larvae of all bee species, including bumblebees and other native bees. The nutrients in pollen greatly influence larval growth and development.

After making the measurements, the researchers removed the plants from the pots to analyze their roots. The number of root nodules served as an indication of interaction with rhizobia.

Nodules are knob-like structures that form on the roots of leguminous plants as a result of symbiotic infection by nitrogen-fixing bacteria. The mutualistic relationship with bacteria enables plants to manufacture the amino acids they require.

Amino acids and their derivatives perform many functions in plants, contributing to protein synthesis, development, nutrition, and stress responses. In exchange, plants supply the sugar bacteria need for energy and growth, enabling them to proliferate in the nodules.

In the experiment, the plants grown in nitrogen-poor sandy soil and inoculated with rhizobia had the most nodules.

“Now we want to know whether this pollen, which is accessible only to female native bees, is enriched with proteins and amino acids because of the partnership between plants and bacteria. The heightened attractiveness of the flowers may be associated with larger amounts of high-quality resources, influenced by the roots’ high nitrogen fixation rate,” Nogueira said.

More information:
Caroline Souza et al, Nitrogen‐fixing bacteria boost floral attractiveness in a tropical legume species during nutrient limitation, American Journal of Botany (2024). DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.16363

Citation:
Presence of bacteria in soil makes flowers more attractive to pollinators, study shows (2024, September 26)
retrieved 26 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-presence-bacteria-soil-pollinators.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Why the gender gap in physics has been stable for more than a century

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Why the gender gap in physics has been stable for more than a century


The gender gap in physics has been stable for more than a century. Here's why
a)Two existing nodes with their ego networks (grayed out) that belong to different groups, indicated by different colors (red and blue). The size of a node indicates its Π, or how attractive it is. b) New nodes arrive and attach to the existing nodes based on their attractiveness Π. For simplicity, each new node only attaches to one existing node. c) Inferring the labels of the new nodes using the mixing values in H. The mixing matrix H used in the figure is only for illustrative purposes and does not represent real data. Credit: Complexity Science Hub

As a physicist and data scientist with a keen interest in gender inequality, Fariba Karimi was amazed to discover that the gender gap in physics has remained almost unchanged since 1900. As the citation and coauthorship networks in physics expand, women still make up a small proportion—and the gaps between male and female are getting larger in terms of absolute numbers.

“With roughly the same number of men and women in the world, we should expect this gap to close in an equal society. But what we see in reality is a persistent gap in physics over time,” says Karimi, from the Complexity Science Hub.

“This gap was puzzling me. Why is this happening and when will this gap close?,” adds Karimi, also a professor at Graz University of Technology. Together with computer scientist Jun Sun, from the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Karimi decided to investigate why these inequities persist.

In a paper, titled “Emergence of group size disparity in growing networks with adoption,” published in Communications Physics, Karimi and Sun introduce a model that combines two key mechanisms—generalized preferential attachment and asymmetric mixing—to explain the enduring disparities observed in academic networks.

First, a look at real-world dynamics

Initially, the researchers constructed and examined the growing networks of citation and coauthorship in the American Physical Society (APS) publications. The APS dataset includes more than 668,000 papers published in APS journals between 1893 and 2020 and more than 8,5 million citations.

They observed that the ratios of male- to female-led papers, as well as male to female researchers, remain considerably high for decades, reflecting systematic disparities that can be associated to historical barriers of entry and social preferences.

“I was fascinated to see more and more female physicists, and more female-led papers in the field, which is good because we had a really large disparity before,” says Sun. “On the other hand, the gap in terms of absolute numbers was getting larger.”

Who takes in the newcomer?

Karimi and Sun decided to investigate these empirical findings further to uncover the reasons behind these disparities. “In real systems, it’s not as simple as someone coming and connecting to others in a network. Especially in systems like academia, it is also a matter of who takes in the newcomer and adopts him or her into their personal network. In our new model, we wanted to consider this adoption process,” explains Karimi.

“We combined two existing models into one,” adds Karimi. In the novel model, asymmetric mixing is the fundamental mechanism of adoption, as it reflects homophily, or the tendency that people who are alike act alike, that “birds of a feather naturally flock together.” A generalized preferential attachment growth mechanism is also incorporated into the model, where popular or established members attract more connections.

“We were able to replicate real-world dynamics with our model,” explains Karimi. Their model demonstrated, as the real-world data, the persistence of gender imbalances in citation and coauthorship trends.

“Our model shows that, if we continue collaborating and citing fellow physicists this way, this gap will remain as it is,” says Karimi.

“The novelty here is that we do not assume that the increase in women is an endogenous factor, but rather an emergent property of a time-dependent growing system. This explains why the gap persists,” explains Karimi.

What-if scenarios

“Our model shows that this slow arrival of women in physics is also related to biases that emerge when one decides to collaborate with a new person. Having an understanding of this mechanism allows us to discuss what-if scenarios,” adds the physicist.

“Theoretically, we could adjust the probability of adoption so that the number of women arriving will speed up and compensate, and they will have a similar adoption experience as men,” said Karimi. “If we don’t take these interventions soon, this gap will not close very easily because of this adoption process. It’s not just about having more women, but also about how they are integrating into networks.”

Implications for academia and beyond

While the study focuses on academic networks, its implications extend beyond academia. According to Karimi, the same network dynamics could also apply to various sectors, including corporate boards and managerial hiring practices, where biases and preferences can shape long-term growth and group representation.

Understanding the mechanisms behind these disparities could allow policymakers, organizations, and academic institutions to design interventions that promote more inclusive and equitable environments.

Creating opportunities for junior women and senior men to collaborate more is one way to promote collaboration equity, suggests Karimi.

“In the model, closing the gap is easily achieved by adjusting a couple of parameters. However, in reality such interventions are much more challenging, such as by giving female researchers more opportunities for funding, as well as promotion,” says Sun.

More information:
Jun Sun et al, Emergence of group size disparity in growing networks with adoption, Communications Physics (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s42005-024-01799-z

Citation:
Why the gender gap in physics has been stable for more than a century (2024, September 26)
retrieved 26 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-gender-gap-physics-stable-century.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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How the US government can stop ‘churches’ from getting treated like real churches by the IRS

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How the US government can stop ‘churches’ from getting treated like real churches by the IRS


church
Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

The Family Research Council is a conservative advocacy group with a “biblical worldview.” While it has a church ministries department that works with churches from several evangelical Christian denominations that share its perspectives, it does not represent a single denomination. Although its activities are primarily focused on policy, advocacy, government lobbying and public communication, the Internal Revenue Service granted the council’s application to be treated as “an association of churches” in 2020.

Concerned that the IRS had erred in allowing the council and similar groups to be designated churches or associations of churches, Democratic members of the House of Representatives sent the Treasury secretary and the IRS commissioner letters in 2022 and 2024 expressing alarm. The House Democrats pointed to what appeared to be “abuse” of the tax code and asked the IRS to “determine whether existing guidance is sufficient to prevent abuse and what resources or Congressional actions are needed.”

As a professor of nonprofit law, I believe some groups that aren’t churches or associations of churches want to be designated that way to avoid the scrutiny being a charitable organization otherwise requires. At the same time, some other groups that should qualify as churches may have difficulty doing so because of the IRS’ outdated test for that status.

Together with my colleague Ellen P. Aprill, I recently published a paper outlining two main arguments in favor of revising the federal government’s definitions of churches as they pertain to tax law.

No 990s means less scrutiny

All charitable nonprofits, including churches, get the same basic benefits under federal tax law. This means they don’t have to pay taxes on their revenue and that donors can deduct the value of their gifts from their taxable income—as long as they itemize deductions on their tax return.

Unlike other tax-exempt charities, churches don’t have to file 990 forms. That means the public does not have access to churches’ staff pay, board membership and funding details, which are in this publicly available tax form that all other charities must complete every year. The availability of 990 forms enhances the transparency and accountability of the nonprofit sector.

And churches and associations of churches are unlikely to get audited by the IRS. Federal law requires that a senior IRS official “reasonably believes” the church or association has violated federal tax rules before beginning an investigation. This means that an official must have reason to believe the organization has violated federal tax law before obtaining any information from the organization.

This standard is higher than what’s needed before an audit can begin for all other tax-exempt organizations and indeed all taxpayers. For everyone else, the IRS is free to begin an examination based only on a suspicion of a violation or even based on random selection.

Also, unlike other tax-exempt charities, churches and church associations are automatically eligible for their tax-exempt status. They don’t have to apply for it.

Why churches get special treatment

Congress has passed laws granting churches and what it calls “integrated auxiliaries” and “conventions or associations of churches” special protections because the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution protects religious freedom.

Churches include houses of worship ranging in size from a handful of parishioners to megachurches with 10,000 or more people attending weekly services. Houses of worship of all faiths, including synagogues, mosques and temples, count as churches, according to the IRS.

Integrated auxiliaries are church schools and other organizations affiliated with churches or conventions and primarily supported by internal church sources, as opposed to by the public or government.

Conventions or associations of churches are organizations that have houses of worship from either a single denomination or from multiple denominations as their members. Most denominational bodies, such as the executive committee of the Southern Baptist Convention and the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, are likely conventions or associations of churches, although the IRS does not publish a list of such entities.

Not every religious nonprofit belongs in one of these categories.

For example, the University of Notre Dame, where I teach law students and conduct legal research, and World Vision, a global humanitarian group, are both religious organizations that do not fall into any of these categories. This makes sense, because Notre Dame and World Vision are primarily engaged in activities other than fostering a religious congregation or coordinating the activities of churches within a single denomination.

The IRS has long relied on a 14-factor test to distinguish churches from other religious nonprofits. Examples of those factors include having ordained ministers, a formal doctrine, a distinct membership and a regular congregation attending religious services.

It’s not necessary for all the factors to apply to pass this test.

Yet for almost as long, courts have been uncomfortable with this test because it draws heavily on the traditional characteristics of Protestant Christian churches, as the U.S. Court of Federal Claims explained in a 2009 ruling. This system therefore may be a poor fit for houses of worship of other faiths, especially given the increasing diversity of faith communities.

These courts have instead adopted an “associational test.” It focuses on whether the organization’s congregants hold religious services on a regular basis and gather in person on other occasions.

With the growth of virtual and televised religious services, an update of this test is overdue.

Proposed solutions

Aprill and I recommend that the IRS change its definition for churches to the associational one adopted by some courts in rulings as early as 1980. As the U.S. Court of Federal Claims explained in that 2009 ruling, this test focuses on whether a body of believers assembles regularly to worship. Given technological advances, the IRS should also make it clear that this test can be satisfied through remote participation in religious services using interactive, teleconferencing apps such as Zoom.

This definition would also be better suited for congregations of all faiths because some faiths do not prioritize many of the factors included in the IRS test, such as having a formal code of doctrine or requiring members to not be associated with other houses of worship or faiths. And it would better reflect how some Americans participate in religious services today.

We recommend that the IRS revisit its test for being a church and that Congress pass a law that would change the definition of church associations. The new law could limit associations of churches to organizations that represent a single denomination, as Congress likely initially intended.

This latter change would make it harder for religious organizations that are primarily involved in bringing churches from multiple faiths together to engage in advocacy or other activities to obtain this status and the lack of transparency and accountability that come with it. We believe Congress, not the IRS, should make this change because of the potential political tensions that narrowing the definition could create.

We don’t think the changes would impinge upon the special role that churches have in our society. Indeed, the revised test for qualifying as a church would better fit with both the increasing variety of faiths in our country and technological advancements.

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.The Conversation

Citation:
How the US government can stop ‘churches’ from getting treated like real churches by the IRS (2024, September 26)
retrieved 26 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-churches-real-irs.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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