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Machine learning reveals factors for successful crowdfunding

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Machine learning reveals factors for successful crowdfunding


crowdfunding
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Modern crowdfunding has grown from relatively modest beginnings in the late 1990s to a multi-billion-dollar financing market for all kinds of early-stage innovations. The platform Kickstarter alone went from $276 million pledged in 2012 to $7.8 billion in 2024. There are even professional project designers to help craft that winning proposal.

With stakes like those, getting the pitch right is everything.

Enter machine learning to assist. Researchers from the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management put four different types of this artificial intelligence application to the test, including Deep Learning. Machine learning proved not only superior to conventional statistical methods for predicting whether a crowdfunding campaign would reach its goal, it also identified which elements helped most, and how.

The findings are published in the Journal of Business Venturing Design.

“Running a crowdfunding campaign is costly and could fail,” says Ramy Elitzur, a professor of accounting at the Rotman School. “Our analysis shows project creators ways to improve their chances of success, or, alternatively, whether they should pursue a different project funding strategy.”

Kickstarter is an all-or-nothing platform, meaning that project creators don’t receive any money unless they meet their fundraising goal. Analyzing more than 100,000 Kickstarter projects, Prof. Elitzur, Prof. David Soberman, who is the Canadian National Chair of Strategic Marketing, and other researchers found that the size of the campaign’s monetary goal accounted for more than half of a project’s success. The creator’s social capital, the number of reward options offered, and the campaign’s duration were also top factors.

Machine learning also got into the nitty-gritty of how much and how long. A project’s chances of success remained pretty much the same up to a fundraising goal of $100,000, then began to drop beyond that, with a sharper drop-off over $133,300. Conventional standard regression models, however, predict that the chance of success consistently drops as the monetary goal increases. That’s because these models lean towards identifying “linear” relationships where influencing factors and outcomes move in only one direction.

Crowdfunding, like many things, is more complex, with multiple variables acting on each other as well as the outcome.

“One of the things machine learning does is model all possible interactions among variables,” says Prof. Elitzur. “It gives us the direct effect on the outcome of each variable and the total effect of the interaction with other variables.”

While standard regression showed success increased with greater social capital—measured through the number of comments a project earned—machine learning revealed that success actually increased up to about 750 comments, then leveled off.

Its results also suggested the sweet spot for campaign duration was 10 to 15 days and that the number of project reward options has a moderate positive effect on success up to about 15 reward options, then slightly negative effects between 15 and 20 options, followed by a positive effect in waves between 20 and 50 reward options, finally plateauing after 50 options.

When machine learning’s text analysis capabilities were deployed—something numerically based standard methods can’t do—they could reach beyond Kickstarter’s 15 main project classifications to identify “gadgets” as the least successful project type.

It turns out that creators looking for that winning proposal should steer clear of flyable Second World War aircraft. In that case, “the deck is stacked against you and you would have a lower likelihood of success than any other domain,” says Prof. Elitzur, who is currently applying the same methods to predicting high-tech start-up success.

In addition, the text analysis capabilities of the models illustrate that as with real estate, the location of the project counts.

The research was also co-written with Noam Katz of Ben Gurion University in Israel and Perri Mutath of The Israel Innovation Authority.

More information:
Ramy Elitzur et al, The power of machine learning methods to predict crowdfunding success: Accounting for complex relationships efficiently, Journal of Business Venturing Design (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.jbvd.2024.100022

Citation:
Finding the sweet spot: Machine learning reveals factors for successful crowdfunding (2024, September 24)
retrieved 24 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-sweet-machine-reveals-factors-successful.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
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Fecal transplants reduce ADHD and anxiety symptoms in dogs with epilepsy, researchers find

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Fecal transplants reduce ADHD and anxiety symptoms in dogs with epilepsy, researchers find


beagle
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Researchers from the Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences (VMBS) and Center for Systems Neuroscience in Hannover, Germany have discovered that fecal microbiota transplants (FMT) can reduce negative mental health symptoms in dogs with epilepsy—especially in dogs with a version of epilepsy that is resistant to drugs.

The work is published in the journal Frontiers in Veterinary Science.

FMT is a non-invasive treatment delivered via enema that has become popular in human medicine over the last two decades thanks to increased scientific understanding of the gut microbiome—the community of bacteria living in the gut that helps regulate healthy digestion.

Scientists have also discovered evidence that the gut microbiome may play an even bigger role, influencing other parts of the body—including the brain in what is called the gut-brain axis. Veterinary science experts have also begun studying this relationship with regards to animal health.

In their recent study, the researchers treated nine dogs with drug-resistant epilepsy—a type of epilepsy that does not respond to the usual drug therapies and affects approximately two-thirds of dogs with epilepsy. According to the study, dogs with this version of the disease tend to experience more ADHD- and anxiety-type symptoms than other dogs with epilepsy.

“Each patient in the study received FMT three times over a period of several weeks, and was monitored during follow-up appointments,” said Dr. Jan Suchodolski, the associate director of research and head of microbiome sciences at the Texas A&M Gastrointestinal Laboratory. “After treatment, each of the nine dogs showed significant improvements to their mental health, including a reduction of anxiety-like behavior and improved quality of life.

“While we don’t yet understand the mechanism causing these behavioral improvements, we hope to continue developing new ways to help patients with drug-resistant diseases using microbiome science,” he said. “Research in this field is highly translational, meaning it is helpful to both human and veterinary medicine.”

The gut and the brain

It may seem counterintuitive to try treating mental health symptoms using gut health, but all the evidence points toward a mysterious connection between these two bodily symptoms.

“The gut has a far more central role in overall health than most people realize,” Suchodolski said. “We talk about the gut-brain axis, but there is also the gut-kidney axis, the gut-liver axis, and others.”

The relationship between the gut and other body systems isn’t well understood yet, but scientists are steadily gathering more information.

“We know that situations with high levels of mental stress can affect gut motility,” Suchodolski said. “There are also several neurological diseases—including Alzheimer’s disease and strokes—that also seem to cause gut symptoms in patients, and vice versa. There have also been studies showing that changing the gut’s microbiome with probiotics or diet alterations can also affect disease symptoms, so there’s a lot of evidence of this relationship.”

FMT is just one kind of treatment that makes use of the gut-brain relationship, and it’s proving to be highly effective.

“If you think of the microbiome like a garden, FMT is like putting in a whole new ecosystem,” Suchodolski said. “You’re adding in all kinds of bacteria and other organisms to see if something changes.

“What’s most interesting is that our research team measured the seizure frequency in the patients after the treatment, and that improvement was not very strong. The behavior change was much more pronounced,” he said.

More information:
Antja Watanangura et al, Behavioral comorbidities treatment by fecal microbiota transplantation in canine epilepsy: a pilot study of a novel therapeutic approach, Frontiers in Veterinary Science (2024). DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1385469

Citation:
Fecal transplants reduce ADHD and anxiety symptoms in dogs with epilepsy, researchers find (2024, September 24)
retrieved 24 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-fecal-transplants-adhd-anxiety-symptoms.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Atmospheric methane increase during pandemic due primarily to wetland flooding, satellite data analysis finds

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Atmospheric methane increase during pandemic due primarily to wetland flooding, satellite data analysis finds


wetlands
Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

A new analysis of satellite data finds that the record surge in atmospheric methane emissions from 2020 to 2022 was driven by increased inundation and water storage in wetlands, combined with a slight decrease in atmospheric hydroxide (OH). The results have implications for efforts to decrease atmospheric methane and mitigate its impact on climate change.

The research is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“From 2010 to 2019, we saw regular increases—with slight accelerations—in atmospheric methane concentrations, but the increases that occurred from 2020 to 2022 and overlapped with the COVID-19 shutdown were significantly higher,” says Zhen Qu, assistant professor of marine, Earth and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State University and lead author of the research. “Global methane emissions increased from about 499 teragrams (Tg) to 550 Tg during the period from 2010 to 2019, followed by a surge to 570—590 Tg between 2020 and 2022.”

Atmospheric methane emissions are given by their mass in teragrams. One teragram equals about 1.1 million U.S. tons.

One of the leading theories concerning the sudden atmospheric methane surge was the decrease in manmade air pollution from automobiles and industry during the pandemic shutdown of 2020 and 2021. Air pollution contributes hydroxyl radicals (OH) to the lower atmosphere. In turn, atmospheric OH interacts with other gases, such as methane, to break them down.

“The prevailing idea was that the pandemic reduced the amount of OH concentration, therefore there was less OH available in the atmosphere to react with and remove methane,” Qu says.

To test the theory, Qu and a team of researchers from the U.S., U.K. and Germany looked at global satellite emissions data and atmospheric simulations for both methane and OH during the period from 2010 to 2019 and compared it to the same data from 2020 to 2022 to tease out the source of the surge.

Using data from satellite readings of atmospheric composition and chemical transport models, the researchers created a model that allowed them to determine both amounts and sources of methane and OH for both time periods.

They found that most of the 2020 to 2022 methane surge was a result of inundation events—or flooding events—in equatorial Asia and Africa, which accounted for 43% and 30% of the additional atmospheric methane, respectively. While OH levels did decrease during the period, this decrease only accounted for 28% of the surge.

“The heavy precipitation in these wetland and rice cultivation regions is likely associated with the La Niña conditions from 2020 to early 2023,” Qu says. “Microbes in wetlands produce methane as they metabolize and break down organic matter anaerobically, or without oxygen. More water storage in wetlands means more anaerobic microbial activity and more release of methane to the atmosphere.”

The researchers feel that a better understanding of wetland emissions is important to developing plans for mitigation.

“Our findings point to the wet tropics as the driving force behind increased methane concentrations since 2010,” Qu says. “Improved observations of wetland methane emissions and how methane production responds to precipitation changes are key to understanding the role of precipitation patterns on tropical wetland ecosystems.”

More information:
Zhen Qu et al, Inverse modeling of 2010–2022 satellite observations shows that inundation of the wet tropics drove the 2020–2022 methane surge, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2402730121

Citation:
Atmospheric methane increase during pandemic due primarily to wetland flooding, satellite data analysis finds (2024, September 24)
retrieved 24 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-atmospheric-methane-pandemic-due-primarily.html

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part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Department of Justice sues Visa, saying the card issuer monopolizes debit card markets

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Department of Justice sues Visa, saying the card issuer monopolizes debit card markets


Department of Justice sues Visa, saying the card issuer monopolizes debit card markets
A Visa card is displayed on May 15, 2024, in Portland, Ore. Credit: AP Photo/Jenny Kane, File

The U.S. Justice Department has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Visa, alleging that the financial services behemoth uses its size and dominance to stifle competition in the debit card market, costing consumers and businesses billions of dollars.

The complaint filed Tuesday says Visa penalizes merchants and banks who don’t use Visa’s own payment processing technology to process debit transactions, even though alternatives exist. Visa earns an incremental fee from every transaction processed on its network.

According to the DOJ’s complaint, 60% of debit transactions in the United States run on Visa’s debit network, allowing it to charge over $7 billion in fees each year for processing those transactions.

“We allege that Visa has unlawfully amassed the power to extract fees that far exceed what it could charge in a competitive market,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland in a statement. “Merchants and banks pass along those costs to consumers, either by raising prices or reducing quality or service. As a result, Visa’s unlawful conduct affects not just the price of one thing—but the price of nearly everything.”

© 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Citation:
Department of Justice sues Visa, saying the card issuer monopolizes debit card markets (2024, September 24)
retrieved 24 September 2024
from https://techxplore.com/news/2024-09-department-justice-sues-visa-card.html

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Signs of hope for endangered Maugean skate

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Signs of hope for endangered Maugean skate


Signs of hope for endangered Maugean skate
Credit: David Moreno et al, Interim Report Number 2 – Macquarie Harbour Maugean skate population status and monitoring (2024)

For the first time in nearly a decade, scientists have recorded an increased presence of young Maugean skates—a ray of hope for the survival of the endangered species.

The research by the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies offers a promising sign for the Maugean skate, a species endemic to the unique environment of Macquarie Harbour.

Data collected between 2021 and September 2024 suggests the population may be stabilizing after a decline reported over a decade leading up to 2020.

“Although the population remains significantly lower than historical levels, catch per unit effort data—a standard measure of relative abundance—shows the skate population has stabilized since 2021 and there has been no overall further decline,” IMAS researcher and Maugean skate captive breeding program leader Professor Jayson Semmens said.

“It takes approximately six years for Maugean skate hatchlings to reach maturity, so while immediate recovery of adult biomass is not expected, the presence of juveniles at a similar proportion relative to adults in the sampling as we were seeing in 2014 is a positive sign. Continued monitoring will be crucial to understanding the long-term trajectory of the species.”

While the skate remains endangered, IMAS researcher Dr. David Moreno said it was too early to predict long-term outcomes and stressed the importance of ongoing research and monitoring to guide effective conservation efforts.

“Additional data are needed to determine whether the observed presence of young skates will lead to a sustained recovery,” Dr. Moreno said. “Updated population models and action plans are needed to ensure the species’ survival in Macquarie Harbour, its last remaining habitat.”

The extended dataset and early signs of stabilization in the population underline the critical need for ongoing support and monitoring efforts, which will be pivotal in guiding effective conservation efforts for the Maugean skate.

“This is science in action,” IMAS Fisheries and Aquaculture Centre Head Professor Sean Tracey said.

“All the work presented to date has been based on the best available information at the time. Funding support from the Tasmanian and Australian governments has helped us improve our understanding of the Maugean skate. As we learn more, our role is to ensure that we’re updating and reassessing that information so that decisions are made based on the best contemporary data.”

More information:
David Moreno et al, Interim Report Number 2 – Macquarie Harbour Maugean skate population status and monitoring (2024)

Citation:
Signs of hope for endangered Maugean skate (2024, September 24)
retrieved 24 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-endangered-maugean-skate.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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