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El Niño forecasts extended to 18 months with physics-based model

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El Niño forecasts extended to 18 months with physics-based model


El Niño forecasts extended to 18 months with innovative physics-based model
Interactions of El Niño with other climate patterns lead to enhanced El Niño predictability. Credit: Sen Zhao, UH SOEST.

Across Asia, the Pacific Ocean, and the Americas, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) brings variations in winds, weather, and ocean temperature that can cause droughts, floods, crop failures, and food shortages. Recently, the world has experienced a major El Niño event in 2023–2024, dramatically impacting weather, climate, ecosystems, and economies globally.

By developing an innovative modeling approach, researchers from the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa are now able to forecast ENSO events up to 18 months ahead of time—significantly improving conventional climate model forecasting.

Their findings, which meld insights into the physics of the ocean and atmosphere with predictive accuracy, were published in Nature.

“We have developed a new conceptual model—the so-called extended nonlinear recharge oscillator (XRO) model—that significantly improves predictive skill of ENSO events at over one year in advance, better than global climate models and comparable to the most skillful AI forecasts,” said Sen Zhao, lead author of the study and an assistant researcher in SOEST.

“Our model effectively incorporates the fundamental physics of ENSO and ENSO’s interactions with other climate patterns in the global oceans that vary from season to season.”

Scientists have been working for decades to improve ENSO predictions given its global environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Traditional operational forecasting models have struggled to successfully predict ENSO with lead times exceeding one year.

AI helps power new forecast

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have pushed these boundaries, achieving accurate predictions up to 16–18 months in advance. However, the “black box” nature of AI models has precluded attribution of this accuracy to specific physical processes.

Not being able to explain the source of the predictability in the AI models results in low confidence that these predictions will be successful for future events as the Earth continues to warm, changing the currents in the oceans and atmosphere.

“Unlike the ‘black box’ nature of AI models, our XRO model offers a transparent view into the mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific recharge-discharge physics and its interactions with other climate patterns outside of tropical Pacific,” explained Fei-Fei Jin, the corresponding author and professor of atmospheric sciences in SOEST.

“The initial states of the extratropical Pacific, tropical Indian Ocean, and Atlantic enhance ENSO predictability in distinct seasons. For the first time, we are able to robustly quantify their impact on ENSO predictability, thus deepening our knowledge of ENSO physics and its sources of predictability.”

Climate model shortcomings, improvements

“Our findings also identify shortcomings in the latest generation of climate models that lead to their failure in predicting ENSO accurately,” said Malte Stuecker, assistant professor of oceanography in SOEST and study co-author.

“To improve ENSO predictions, climate models must correctly capture the key physics of ENSO and additionally, three compounding aspects of other climate patterns in the global oceans: accurate knowledge of the state of each of these climate patterns when the ENSO forecasts starts, the correct seasonally varying ‘ocean memory’ of each of these climate patterns, and correct representations of how each of these other climate patterns affect ENSO in different seasons.”

“Different sources of predictability lead to distinct ENSO event evolutions,” said Philip Thompson, associate professor of oceanography in SOEST and co-author of the study. “We are now able to provide skillful, long lead time predictions of this ‘ENSO diversity,’ which is critical as different flavors of ENSO have very different impacts on global climate and individual communities.”

“In addition to El Niño, the new XRO model also improves predictability of other climate variabilities in tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which can significantly alter the local and global weather patterns beyond the impacts of El Niño,” added Zhao.

Future directions

The implications of this research are far-reaching, offering prospects for more accurate and longer lead time ENSO predictions and global climate model improvements.

Though ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific, we can no longer think of it as a tropical Pacific Ocean problem only, either from a modeling and prediction perspective or from an observational perspective. The global tropics and the higher latitudes are integral to improving seasonal climate forecasts.

“By tracing model shortcomings and understanding these climate pattern interactions with our new conceptual XRO model, we can substantially refine our global climate models,” remarked Stuecker.

“This paves the way for the next-generation of global climate models to incorporate these findings, improving our approach to predicting and mitigating the effects of climate variability and change. Such advancements are crucial for societal preparations and adaptations to climate-related hazards.”

The UH team of researchers was rounded out with contributing authors from Columbia University, NOAA, Korea, and China.

More information:
Fei-Fei Jin, Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07534-6. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07534-6

Citation:
El Niño forecasts extended to 18 months with physics-based model (2024, June 26)
retrieved 26 June 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-06-el-nio-months-physics-based.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well

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Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well


Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well
A fox pauses on a scenic, rocky outcrop on Isle Royale. Credit: Mauriel Rodriguez Curras

In a rare opportunity to study carnivores before and after wolves were reintroduced to their ranges, researchers from the University of Wisconsin–Madison found that the effects of wolves on Isle Royale have been only temporary. And even in the least-visited national park, humans had a more significant impact on carnivores’ lives.

The paper, published recently in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, uses DNA from foxes and martens’ scat and hair to understand where these animals were and what they ate before wolves were reintroduced, following the first year of their reintroduction, and as they formed packs across the island.

While many studies have been conducted to understand the effects of a carnivore reintroduction on their prey, less well studied is the effect of the reintroduction on other carnivores in the same food web, in this case foxes and martens.

“We had this really amazing opportunity in Isle Royale—where we had data before this large carnivore reintroduction and then following the reintroduction of wolves—where we could look at how these effects within carnivores are taking place, and how they shift,” says Mauriel Rodriguez Curras, who completed this work as a graduate student in the lab of UW–Madison forest and wildlife ecology professor Jonathan Pauli.

Isle Royale is a remote island in Lake Superior and its isolated geography and limited variety of animals—including moose, beavers and squirrels—make the island a relatively simple ecosystem in which to study the complexities of carnivore reintroductions.

Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well
Hair traps like this made from a brush placed inside of a PVC pipe collect hair samples from martens as they crawl through the pipe. Samples from foxes are collected from a similar but larger hair trap. Credit: Jonathan Pauli

Wolves first came to Isle Royale in the 1940s, likely by means of an ice bridge that formed naturally across 15 miles of Lake Superior from Minnesota or Canada to the island. Recently, climate change has kept ice bridges from forming as often, meaning new wolves can’t cross over to Isle Royale.

While the island once had 50 wolves across several packs, by 2018 there were just two wolves left: a father daughter duo that, due to inbreeding, were also half siblings. With the goal of restoring the natural apex predator to the island and rebalancing the ecosystem, 19 wolves were introduced by the park to Isle Royale in 2019.

For this study, a typical field day involved hiking between 15 and 20 miles of trail to check traps—open PVC tubes with little brushes inside them—for hair samples and looking for scat to swab and collect. Once back at UW–Madison, Rodriguez Curras and Pauli extracted DNA from both the samples and determined which individual fox or marten it was from. By measuring ratios of carbon and nitrogen present in the samples, they could also reconstruct the animals’ diets.

From their analysis, Rodriguez Curras and Pauli categorized the effects from wolves on other carnivores into three phases: absence, establishment and coalescence. The absence phase is data the lab had collected on foxes and martens the year before wolves were reintroduced to the island.

During establishment, which included the first year of the wolves’ reintroduction, no clear territories or packs had established, and the wolves were wandering the island mostly as individuals. Foxes altered where they hung out on the island in this phase, moving away from the dense forest and closer to campgrounds.

Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well
When researchers find a scat sample, they note the GPS coordinates, swab the sample and collect it to be analyzed more thoroughly back in the lab at UW-Madison. Credit: Mauriel Rodriguez Curras

Since foxes compete with martens for food and have been known to kill them, martens normally stick to the densely forested areas of the island where it’s easier to hide. But, with foxes shifting to other areas of the island after wolf reintroduction, martens were able to expand their distribution on the island and increase their population.

Meanwhile, foxes found themselves facing greater risk. Foxes hunt small prey, but they often rely on scavenging. Theoretically, scavenging off wolf kills is beneficial to the foxes who couldn’t easily kill prey as large as a beaver or a moose calf. But to scavenge off those kills they would also have to be in areas the wolves are regularly, elevating the risk of being killed. So, rather than contend with wolves all the time, foxes supplemented their food by sticking close to campgrounds. They leveraged their cuteness and begging and raiding skills to target an easier meal: food from human visitors.

By 2020, the wolves had coalesced into packs with defined territories. The effects of wolves on the other carnivores disappeared, and foxes and martens occupied areas and ate food similar to the absence phase.

“The rewilding of these species is an important move that conservation biologists are making to try and reweave the fabric of ecosystem function,” said Pauli who’s been studying the island for 8 years. “But I think the point is that when we do this reweaving of communities, unexpected things happen. I don’t think these are bad things, but they’re not necessarily things that we’d immediately predict.”

Another unexpected consequence was how strongly human visitors to the island could affect these species interactions. Even though Isle Royale is considered one of the most pristine wilderness areas in the country and is one of the least-visited national park, Rodriguez Curras and Pauli found that humans, and the food they bring with them, have a significant effect on the relationship between the carnivores, where they live, what they eat and how they then interact.

Rodriguez Curras and Pauli credit their partnership with the National Park Service for providing the opportunity to conduct research that can guide ongoing and future carnivore reintroduction efforts in other areas. Their work revealing the way species interact with one another and with humans also provides Isle Royale National Park with the best available science to potentially improve visitors’ experiences while preserving the island’s wilderness.

More information:
Mauriel Rodriguez Curras et al, The pulsed effects of reintroducing wolves on the carnivore community of Isle Royale, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (2024). DOI: 10.1002/fee.2750

Citation:
Wolves reintroduced to Isle Royale temporarily affect other carnivores, humans have influence as well (2024, June 26)
retrieved 26 June 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-06-wolves-reintroduced-isle-royale-temporarily.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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New E88Pro RC Drone 4K Professinal With 1080P Wide Angle Dual HD Camera Foldable RC Helicopter WIFI FPV Height Hold Apron Sell

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More women in venture capital doesn’t mean more funding for female-led businesses, new research suggests

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More women in venture capital doesn’t mean more funding for female-led businesses, new research suggests


business deal
Credit: Thirdman from Pexels

Venture capital plays an important role in helping new businesses get off the ground. The field also has a stubborn gender gap.

More than 4 in 5 partners at U.S.-based venture capital firms are men, surveys and research show. Perhaps relatedly, VC firms overwhelmingly direct their funds to man-led businesses: In 2023, only about 1 in 4 VC funds were allocated to woman-led companies, according to Crunchbase data.

Advocates for gender equity have long called for firms to have more female senior venture capitalists on their teams. The idea is that having more women making investment decisions will translate into more funding for woman-led businesses.

As a professor of entrepreneurship, I wondered whether the facts supported this idea. So my co-authors and I analyzed funding decisions from more than 150 mid- and large-sized U.S.-based VC firms over eight years.

When women don’t support women

What we found surprised us: Firms whose decision-making groups included more female senior venture capitalists offered less funding to woman-led businesses. Every additional senior female venture capitalist in a firm’s decision-making group was linked to a 0.46% decline in the proportion of newly funded woman-led businesses in its investment portfolio.

Since the average funding round in our sample was $5.4 million, that suggests adding one extra female senior venture capitalist into a VC decision-making group translates into woman-led businesses receiving about $25,000 less funding.

To be clear, my team isn’t saying that individual female venture capitalists are to blame for this state of affairs. Our work was not aimed at assigning personal responsibility. We simply found that having more women in VC decision-making circles was associated with less funding of woman-led businesses.

On its face, this may seem like a paradox. But it’s consistent with previous research that shows male dominance is entrenched in the U.S. entrepreneurial finance market. According to our interviews with female entrepreneurs and senior venture capitalists, this fosters a culture where women tend to defer to their male counterparts.

Research also suggests that women in male-dominated spaces have incentives to distance themselves from less-powerful women to improve their status. That might help explain why female senior venture capitalists would hesitate to fund woman-led startups.

The value of trust and neutrality

My team also found, however, that two key factors can mitigate this effect.

First, when senior venture capitalists in a decision-making group had worked together previously, we didn’t see the same negative impact. That suggests trust matters.

And when a group includes politically neutral senior venture capitalists, which we judged by looking at public political donation records, it reduces the negative effects on funding for woman-led businesses. This is because politically impartial decision-makers improve and facilitate group communication and consensus building.

Our findings suggest that VC firms might want to explore innovative approaches to fighting gender bias. For example, they could invite outside female investment professionals who have connections with many incumbent senior venture capitalists to work as consultants. These professionals could then independently assess investment proposals and offer advice to VC firms’ decision-making groups.

In some cases, efforts to elevate women in the workplace may pay off. For example, an analysis of all companies listed on the S&P Composite 1500 index from 2004 to 2015 found that calls for greater gender diversity in the boardroom were linked to the inclusion of more female directors.

But as our research suggests, efforts to promote diversity aren’t always so successful, especially in those male-dominated contexts such as the U.S. entrepreneurial finance market. Indeed, they can backfire if they fail to address underlying cultural biases and power dynamics.

To be clear, our study isn’t a call to abandon the pursuit of diversity among venture capitalists. Instead, it underscores the importance of persisting until women achieve equal status in business and society at large.

Provided by
The Conversation


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.The Conversation

Citation:
More women in venture capital doesn’t mean more funding for female-led businesses, new research suggests (2024, June 26)
retrieved 26 June 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-06-women-venture-capital-doesnt-funding.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.





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Transparent Card Slot Bag Holder Case For iPhone 14 13 11 12 15 Pro Max Mini X XR XS 7 8 Plus Clear Shockproof Soft Wallet Cover

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